ASATUNEWS - legislative election is in sight . Various predictions crowded election results have sprung up , each one conveying prediction results of the election in accordance with the method they employ poll .
The founder of the Indonesian Survey Circle ( LSI ) Network , Denny JA , in a statement in Jakarta , Monday ( 7/4 ) said the three political parties will reach a voice above 12 % , respectively PDIP , Golkar Party and the Democratic Party . Total third- party vote totals were estimated at 50 % .
Predictions about the same reported by leading Twitter account , @ Triomacan2000 ( TM2000 ) , in his lecture on the line twit - time on Monday as well ( 7/4 ) . In contrast to LSI , TM2000 even mention the prediction numbers of votes for each party . Top position corresponding poll TM2000 is PDIP ( 17.22 % ) , followed by Golkar Party ( 14.56 % ) , and the Democratic Party in third ( 14.38 % ) . Total third- party voice does not reach the top 50 % of the vote .
LSI announced the results of its opinion poll with the vote split four categories , as follows .
First , the two political parties do not qualify predictable parliamentary threshold ( PT ) or threshold of electability party in parliament because under 3.5 % according to survey results LSI ( 22-26 March 2014 ) . The two parties are the United Nations and PKPI .
Second , the 2014 election is expected to produce six political parties under the electability board between 3.5 % -8 % . Sixth political parties include PKB , PKS , Hanura , Nasdem , PPP , and PAN .
Third , the 2014 election is expected to produce a bipartisan middle board , with electability 8-16 % . Both political parties are Gerindra and Democrats .
Fourth , also predicted the 2014 election would only produce two top political parties , with electability over 16 % and over 20 % of potential . Both parties are PDIP and Golkar . Both parties still have the same chance to be a winner .
According to Denny JA , the party that won the election is the party most able to lure voters undecided ( undecided voters ) , amounting to 10.6 % , and the party that is able to minimize the level of abstentions from pendukunya .
Similarly, four prediction results of legislative elections in 2014. The survey was based on survey data LSI 22 to 26 March 2014. survey in 33 provinces with 1,200 respondents . The margin of error for the survey + / - 2.9 % . " Please outcome prediction was tested along with the results of the quick count ( count quickly ) and KPU official results later , " said Denny JA .
In the 2009 elections , LSI makes predictions only three parties that the acquisition of sound above 12 % , the Democratic Party , PDI-P and Golkar . Total votes of the three parties reached 50 % of the vote .
" LSI predicts only 9 political parties can put their representatives in parliament . This prediction was advertised in the national media on April 8, 2009, which are all proven and LSI obtain MURI record for accuracy in predicting the outcome of the election , " said Denny .
TM2000 mention poll survey team also put the United Nations and PKPI as party parliament does not pass the threshold of 3.5 % . UN voices only won 2.5 % , while it does not even reach PKPI sound or 0 % .
Gerindra called TM2000 as a party that gets a surge of votes , 11.85 % , and followed Hanura ( 9.1 % ) , MCC ( 8.7 % ) , PAN ( 6.7 % ) , PPP ( 5.3 % ) , Nasdem Party ( 5 % ) , and PKB ( 4.5 % ) .
The number of respondents who netted a team TM2000 2,000 voters , spread across 20 cities , with a single query method via telephone . Margin of error of 2.5 % .
No comments:
Post a Comment