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Monday, April 14, 2014

Questioning Indonesian voters , " Effect Jokowi " Just Illusion

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Questioning Indonesian voters , " Effect Jokowi " Just Illusion



Fast calculation results in legislative elections show the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle leader Megawati Sukarnoputri reap 19 % of the vote . Although it has enough performance to make the PDI - P won the majority of seats in the House , placement is not as expected . Party's presidential candidate , Governor of Jakarta Joko Widodo , chances are confused by these results .

After the man nicknamed Jokowi it filed a presidential candidate last month , many pollsters predict the performance of the PDI - P will be boosted in the legislative elections . Some analysts even said that the party will catch 35 % of the vote nationally .

However , the phenomenon known as " Jokowi effect " is an illusion . Doubts about Jokowi toughness in the face of presidential elections next July was bubbling . The performance is not as expected was reportedly sparked a feud between the key figure of the party .

It is difficult to parse tangle wrapped around the PDI - P . However , a number of plausible explanations can be proposed . First , we must remember that it is the arena of legislative elections that test the popularity of the PDI - P as a party , not a candidate for president . Strong candidates can certainly helped the party in the elections . However , candidates do not have the same popularity with the party .

It can also apply both ways . Examples party presidential candidate whose voice exceeded usungannya is Golkar , led by controversial tycoon Bakrie . The survey of Bakrie as its presidential candidate can not exceed 10 % . However , his party was ranked second in the PDI - P with 15% of the national vote ..

Popularity Jokowi sometimes reaching 45 % in the survey , far exceeding the popularity of the PDI - P and above twice the rate achieved in the legislative elections . Indeed , chances are many people who look positively Jokowi as the governor of Jakarta , and loved as a humble figure . However , it could be they doubted his quality as a presidential candidate . None of the survey focuses on the popularity of Jokowi after he was nominated as president . So , until the survey held more mature , the outlook is still uncertain .

Second , pull out on the acquisition of voice-based regions showed that PDI - P excels in Java while Golkar superior outside Java . These results imply that " Jokowi effect " is present , but restricted area lines . Even in Java itself , PDI - P only excels better in a number of locations that have a strong personal bond with Jokowi .

Third , rumors emerged from the inner circle of the PDI - P party vote totals are likely to be better if Megawati and Jokowi have a strong bond . Some of the offending party splits that might be growing more serious in the next few months . The tension between the two circles counselor Megawati loyalists and Jokowi team had to be done before the presidential campaign heats up .

Confusion in the party also have an impact on the flow of campaign funds . It should be a major concern for the PDI - P .

With the uncertainty in the map selector , a large number of decisions hang . Three of the party with the largest voice - PDI - P , Golkar , the Democratic - each must choose coalition partners to secure 20 % of parliament seats as a prerequisite for nominating candidates for president . In addition , parties must choose a vice-presidential candidate .


Usually , the candidates came from a senior partner in the coalition . PDI - P only requires minor parties to pass threshold . There is a slight possibility that the party could freely choose its own candidate for vice president .

The Megawati loyalists family will file as a candidate for vice president Jokowi . One observer said , " Jokowi may borrow the vehicle party , but [ Megawati ] not ready to give all the keys . "

Bakrie ( Golkar ) and Prabowo ( Gerindra ) on the other hand will need a powerful coalition partners in order to exceed the required threshold . Therefore , they would not be too flexible in selecting candidates for vice president . Both will be restrained by compromise and unification difficult political vision loosened .

However , in a broader sense , decisions such as the determination of the coalition partners and vice presidential candidates are not too important . Because voters do not take much care about party affiliation candidate , let alone the names of candidates for vice president . Is the most influential figure of the presidential candidates themselves .

It invites us to take a lesson from the legislative elections just now . In short , the performance of the PDI - P that do not live up to expectations as a reminder that the politics of Indonesia does not promise absolute victory . Energy should be focused on the party's message of support for the candidate he explained .

Jokowi and PDI - P were on the defensive , at least now . Prabowo , who in a recent survey is considered as the second most influential politician in Indonesia , an increase in self-confidence after his party 's performance is much improved . He was one step longer qualifies as a presidential candidate to deal with Jokowi .

Who is the winner ? The most likely answer is that instead of a victory lap for Jokowi and PDI - P , the two rounds of presidential elections will most likely occur .WSJ

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