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Indonesia with a population of 250 million people became the only one in Southeast Asia that would match the top 10 most powerful economic country in the world with the United States , Japan , China , India , Russia , Brazil , within the next thirty years if the appropriate resources to empower human and natural resources that exist .
Indonesia, together with Mexico , Nigeria , and Turkey got a new nickname as a potential economic powerhouse , four countries - abbreviated MINT - is expected to shift the charm of Brazil , Russia , India and China ( BRIC ) are impressive economic growth in recent years .
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Judging from a number of factors , Indonesia does have the potential to grow rapidly. Enny Sri Hartati Indef economists call the potential of Indonesia is actually much bigger than India and China , which had already been so excellent investor world .
" Economic growth is supported mainly by two factors , namely human resources and natural resources . Indonesia excels in these two factors . Potential but , again, only limited potential . If not used properly , the potential can be lost and others are enjoying . "
Then , the question is can the Indonesian improve to achieve economic takeoff ? And will this year be a turning point toward double-digit economic growth ? .
Who MINT ?
• Mexico , Indonesia , Nigeria , and Turkey . The four countries are considered more ' fresh ' than the BRIC ( Brazil , Russia , India and China ) .
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• In the next 20 years MINT feel an increase in the labor force .
• If MINT implement appropriate economic policies , some of them might be able to match the double-digit economic growth in the Chinese style obtained in the period 2003 and 2008.
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Stretching Indonesia's economic growth is seen with partial removal Halim Perdana Kusuma Airport on Friday ( 10 / 01 ) which has been transformed into a commercial airport . Outside the terminal , food stall open sendari morning , as well as a variety of such taxis lined up waiting passengers ready already .
Inside , a number of officers a busy airline booths behind the check -in , luggage scanner set up in front of the waiting room is carpeted , and the occasional sound of the announcement of the latest flight schedules echoed from the microphone .
That morning , the low cost airline Citilink aircraft flew from Halim to Malang . This is the first scheduled commercial flights operating on January 10 at the military airport .
Halim is fairly urgent transformation to reduce traffic congestion Soekarno Hatta Airport .
Soekarno Hatta capacity could only accommodate 22 million passengers per year , in 2013 and had excess capacity doubled and forced to fly 55 million people .
Ministry of Transportation took a brisk walk . Halim is quite dense with military activity and VVIP flights must be shared with commercial aircraft , even before the environmental impact assessment is finished .
Deputy Transportation Minister Bambang Susantono argue this is only a temporary solution . " Medium term , Soekarno Hatta will be expanded and long-term new airport will be built in Karachi . "
However, according to University of Indonesia Transport Expert , Ellen Tangkudung , this is a real example of how the design of infrastructure in Indonesia is slow and could never anticipate high demand .
Economic growth is quite good with an average of 6 % per year and the advent of low-cost trend has open access for anyone to fly .
" [ The government ] is just like the fire department , at Soekarno Hatta already very overloaded then muted slightly by moving to Halim , " he said .
According to economists Enny Sri Hartati precisely the problem lies deeper . " It's a matter of development policy design errors , " he said ..
Economic growth is measured by Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) , the market value of all goods and services produced by a country .
Increased GDP means of production of goods and services in a country also increases so automatically open jobs .
The addition of much-needed jobs to reduce unemployment , which according to BPS data as of August amounted to 7.39 million .
Field work can also reduce poverty which as of September 2013 reached 28 million people .
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" Development continues, as it must be a map of the course , the short , medium and long term . We currently have a Medium Term Development Plan ( Plan) , but its nature is executed based on the interpretation and the whims of the ruling .
If regime change , a road map to change, how can sustainable ? "
In addition , centralized development of Java Area is also a barrier , whereas the potential for very large outside Java .
Policies that restrict and bureaucracy
In addition to infrastructure problems continue to overshadow the growth , the problems of bureaucracy and restrictive policy entrepreneur is also considered to be a barrier .
Earlier this year for example, economic agents faced with the rules banning the export of raw minerals .
Finance Minister Chatib Basri support the policy and said this year should be " the end of raw mineral trends explosion " .
" In 15-20 years , we can not rely on natural resources . Due to the production of shale gas in the United States will make U.S. dependence on Middle East diminished .
" Once dependence is reduced , oil and commodity prices will decline , whereas 65 % of Indonesian exports [ today] is still associated with commodities and energy , " he said in Indonesian Summit , Wednesday ( 15/10 ) in Jakarta .
CastleAsia business consultant and CEO , James Castle , said this rule may be good in the long run , but in the short term this policy not only hurts the foreign investors who want to invest in the sector memanam and coal , but also for domestic investors .
Because the government only specify a target , without accompanied mature plan for getting there so much confusion and mine operators are not ready .
" This is an example of economic style command-and- control legacy of the Soeharto era . I tell you what you're doing . Trick how ? You find out own way . 's Not a plan but a command , " said James, who experienced 20 years of doing business in Indonesia .
Bureaucracy and poor government management is an important chore that must be addressed , because the role of the state in the next few years will be more dominant in comparison with the private sector to boost the economy , he added .
Although investors are increasingly limited space , in fact there is still a wide-open opportunity to develop business in Indonesia .
Chatib Basri said various incentives and tax breaks offered in certain sectors to boost innovation and technology .
This was done to " put an end to the era of cheap labor " in order to grow a sustainable economy in the future .
" We have to move to innovation and technology . We are not talking about making a rocket or plane but in the garment sector for example , we can grow the specialty markets , batik , fashion . "
" Victoria's Secret for example produced here because the quality is good , " he said .
Indonesian GDP
• 2011 6.5 %
• 6.2 % in 2012
• 2013 5.6 % *
• 5.3 % in 2014 *
* ) World Bank projections
To support the innovation , the Ministry of Finance offers a number of waivers for companies that will build a research and technology center in Indonesia .
The private sector is expected to expand training institutions in order to increase the quality of human resources .
. "When the economy is growing rapidly but unequal portions , the gap will be higher and that only a percentage of the wealth enjoyed it. "
Enny Sri Hartati
In addition , in the central sector of the industry will have the incentive as most Indonesian manufacturing industries are concentrated in the upstream and downstream sekor alone .
The turning point
With various obstacles and opportunities , said 2014 could be a turning point that will determine which direction the Indonesian economy in the coming years .
Leadership by Indef Economist Enny Sri Hartati be key to fix all the problems of infrastructure and bureaucracy .
The new leader , he said, should be able to map and steer the economy in accordance with the mandate of the law , not just the pursuit of ambition to grow in double digits.
" Does it have to double digits ? Whether we should emulate the Chinese growth ? According to me . Due to the mandate of the constitution is very clear that his job was to improve the life of all the people of Indonesia . Was a two -digit growth need ? It is the only instrument that is chosen to achieve the goal . "
" If the economy is growing rapidly but unequal portions , the gap will be higher and that only a certain percentage of the wealth enjoyed it, " he added .
"The important thing is to build quality growth with the country's economic pillars , private , and people are equally strong and independent . 's Who should we look out of the vision of the presidential candidates
Indonesia in the group of countries with the new economy of Mexico , Nigeria and Turkey , which are called by economist Jim O'Neill as MINT .
Jim O'Neill is the finding that in 2001 The term BRIC comprising Brazil , Russia , India , and China to countries when it is expected would become a future economic power .
But what makes the fourth in the group of countries that specifically considered the economy would be huge .
One of them , according to O'Neill , is these countries have demographics that ' good ' with an increased number of productive age population is higher than the population that does not work .
So in theory , if Mexico , Indonesia , Nigeria , and Turkey can work together , some will be able to enjoy a two- digit growth as China during 2003-2008.
Besides the four geographical position is also favorable .
Mexico, for example , a neighboring country but the United States is in Latin America . Likewise with Indonesia, which is located in the heart of Southeast Asia and has a close relationship with China .
While Turkey is in two peninsulas , West and East .
Revenue growth forecast ( thousands of U.S. $ )
2000 2012 2050 Forecast
Mexico 7.0 10.6 48.0
Indonesia 0.8 3.6 21.0
Nigeria 0.2 1.4 12.6
Turkey 4.1 10.6 48.5
O'Neill believes Nigeria is somewhat different because it is in the African region is still lacking development , but in the future may develop if the countries in the region to stop fighting and trading with each other .
Challenges in Indonesia
In terms of wealth , Mexico and Turkey are in one level with an average income per person per year is about U.S. $ 10,000 .
The average income in Indonesia and Nigeria U.S. $ 2,100 U.S. $ 1,500 or the equivalent of India's first entry in the BRIC .
According to O'Neill , within the next 30 years there is an opportunity to join MINT 10 largest economies of the world.
However, with a few notes , and the main challenge for the Indonesian - added O'Neill , is the leadership and infrastructure .
He also added that the real challenge and opportunity coexist in Indonesia .
One example is called from a visit to the area Pluit , Jakarta , the soil surface is expected to fall 20 cm per year , but property prices in other areas of Jakarta skyrocket .
To determine economic growth in Indonesia 20 years to come , it is necessary to analyze the development of economic growth in Indonesia 20 years ago . Economic growth also has to do with the increased production of goods and services in economic activities .
It can be said , that concerns the growth and development of a single dimension measured by increased production and income .
In this case means that the presence of the increase in national income that is indicated by the value of the Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) . Economic growth in Indonesia also experienced many changes during the 1970s and 1980s , the development process in Indonesia has many obstacles which are mainly caused by external factors such as the decline in international crude oil prices ahead of the mid-1980s and the recession of the world economy .
Here 's a table of the number of Indonesian GDP from 1985 to 2010 , the data is obtained from the BPS
Year GDP Growth
( in million USD ) Economics
1985 701,254.80
1986 742,461.60 5.876152292
1987 779,032.20 4.925588071
1988 5.78049277 824,064.10
1989 885,519.40 7.457587341
1990 949,641.10 7.241140059
1991 1,018,062.60 7.204985125
1992 1,081,248.00 6.206435636
1993 1,151,490.20 6.496400456
1994 1,238,312.30 7.539977327
1995 1,340,101.60 8.220002337
1996 1444873.30 7.8181908
1997 1,512,780.90 4.699899984
1998 1,314,202.00 -13.12674558
1999 1,324,599.00 0.791126478
2000 1,389,770.20 4.92007015
2001 1,442,984.60 3.829007127
2002 1,506,124.40 4.375639213
2003 1,579,558.90 4.875726069
2004 1,654,825.70 4.765051813
2005 1,750,815.20 5.80058069
2006 1,847,292.90 5.510444506
2007 1,963,974.30 6.316345394
2008 2,082,456.00 6.032752058
2009 2177742.00 4.5756549
2010 2,310,700.00 6.105314587
Indonesian constant price GDP growth during the year 1986 - 2010 can be seen in the table above .
Economic growth in Indonesia has shown a positive trend from the year 1984 to 1997 . In 1998 showed a decrease in the economic growth that is - 13.13 % , this was due to the monetary crisis and the economic crisis that occurred in mid-1997 , which continues to be a multidimensional crisis , so the impact on
Economic growth in Indonesia in 1998 .
In addition to the decline in GDP of Indonesia , inflation in 1998 is also very high as 77.63 % . The economy showed improved performance and a more stable during
starting in 2003 , as reflected in economic growth
has increased .
Nonetheless , the economic growth that occurred are not sufficient to absorb the increase in the labor force , so that unemployment is still up .
Economic growth in the coming 20 years we can see from the economic growth of the last 20 years .
From the results of calculation and observation , Indonesia 20 years from now will have a large GDP values , it is seen from the development of the Indonesian economy 20 years ago , that is from the year 1990 to 2010 .
The development of positive GDP does not necessarily give us the information that has advanced the state of the Indonesian economy , inflation , population , value of ICOR and unemployment is a major problem that we face .
Inflation is a process of rising prices in general
and persistent ( continuous ) with regard to market mechanisms can
caused by various factors , among others , public consumption
increases , excess liquidity in the market that triggered the consumption or even
speculation , as well as due to lack of launch distribution of goods .
If inflation was mild , it has a positive effect in
meaning can stimulate the economy better , which is to increase revenue
national and get people excited to work, save and hold
investment .
Conversely , in a period of severe inflation , which in the event
uncontrolled inflation ( hyperinflation ) that occurred in 1998 into a chaotic state of the economy and felt sluggish economy . People are not excited about working, saving , or investments and production because prices are rising rapidly . Here 's a table of the amount of inflation in Indonesia from 1986 to 2010 , the data is obtained from the BPS
year Inflation
1985
1986 8.83
1987 8.9
1988 5.47
1989 5.97
1990 9.53
1991 9.52
1992 4.94
1993 9.77
1994 9.24
1995 8.64
1996 6.47
1997 11.05
1998 77.63
1999 2.01
2000 9.35
2001 12.55
2002 10.03
2003 5.06
2004 6.4
2005 17.11
2006 6.6
2007 6.59
2008 11.06
2009 6.2
2010 6.96
Can be seen from the above table , after the economic crisis of 1997-1998 Indonesia continues to improve itself to recover from the crisis , as evidenced by the improvement in the value of Indonesia's inflation after the crisis of 1997-1998 .
However, the value of Indonesia's inflation after the crisis of 1997 is still quite big enough , 20 years to come was foreseen inflation in Indonesia is still quite large .
The rate of population growth will affect the per capita income , standard of living , Agriculture of development , employment , labor force and in terms of capital formation , which in turn rapid population growth may have a negative effect on poverty .
Here 's a table of the population of Indonesia from 1986 to 2010 , the data is obtained from the BPS
Year Amount Growth Rate
Population ( million ) Population
1985
1986 167,881.00
1987 170,654.00 1.651765238
1988 173,472.00 1.651294432
1989 176,336.00 1.650986903
1990 179,378.90 1.725626077
1991 182,222.60 1.585303511
1992 185,254.20 1.663679478
1993 1.67602138 188,359.10
1994 191,523.80 1.680141814
1995 194,754.80 1.686996603
1996 197,353.00 1.334087786
1997 1.06002949 199,445.00
1998 201,559.00 1.059941337
1999 203,625.00 1.025010047
2000 205,132.50 0.740331492
2001 207,995.00 1.395439533
2002 212,003.00 1.926969398
2003 215,276.00 1.543846078
2004 1.19753247 217,854.00
2005 219,205.00 0.620140094
2006 222,192.00 1.362651399
2007 225,642.00 1.552711169
2008 228,523.30 1.276934259
2009 1.24547475 231,369.50
2010 237,556.40 2.674034391
According to the 2000 Census , the population of Indonesia amounted to about 205.1 million people . This figure puts Indonesia as the fourth largest country after China , India , and the United States .
Approximately 121 million or 60.1 percent of whom live on the island of Java , the most populous island density 103 people per square kilometer . Conceivably the Indonesian population 20 years from now , it could be Indonesia would rank first beat China's largest population .
Rapid population growth without the support with improving the quality of human resources would bring Indonesia to the direction kehacuran . Increasing number of the population of Indonesia also have an impact on the availability of jobs , the increasing number of residents , the number of unemployed will be more and more due to the limited number of jobs .
Here I will show the data value of ICOR Indonesia from 1985 until 2010.ICOR is the amount of capital required to create the national income .
ICOR value which indicates a good investment productivity between 3-4 , the higher the ICOR gives an indication of the possibility of inefficiency in the use of investment . Lower ICOR shows the efficiency in the use of capital .
Efficiency are the result of technology . Here is a table of values of ICOR Indonesia from 1986 to 2010 , the data is obtained from the BPS
ICOR year
1985 5.5
1986 4.06
1987 4.67
1988 4.84
1989 3.83
1990 4.21
1991 4.4
1992 4.53
1993 4.4
1994 4
1995 3.93
1996 4.19
1997 7.18
1998 1.57
1999 21.52
2000 4.91
2001 5.52
2002 4.87
2003 4.23
2004 4.44
2005 4.5
2006 4
2007 3.77
2008 4.18
2009 5.32
2010
In 1999 a huge inefficiency in the use of investment . During the years 1989-2009 the value of Indonesia's ICOR is still above 4 large , it indicates that Indonesia is still inefficiency in the use of investment .
ICOR Indonesia in 1999 showed the number 21.52 means any growth in gross domestic product ( GDP ) amounted to Rp1 , requires an investment of Rp21 , 52 . Similarly, in 20 years for the coming of the value of ICOR Indonesia is still relatively large , so there is still inefficiency in the use of investment .
It can be concluded that in order to increase the GDP of Indonesia, Indonesia must make greater investments .
Increasing number of Indonesian population , suggests that the more the number of unemployed in Indonesia . The increasing economic growth , will give you an idea of how large the amount of unemployment can be reduced , Okun 's Law would explain it .
Okun 's Law =
n = 0.4 ( g - 2.5 )
n is the number of unemployment can be reduced
g is the growth of the economy .
Growth Year Law
economic Okun
1985
1986 5.876152292 1.350461
1987 4.925588071 0.970235
1988 5.78049277 1.312197
1989 7.457587341 1.983035
1990 7.241140059 1.896456
1991 7.204985125 1.881994
1992 6.206435636 1.482574
1993 6.496400456 1.59856
1994 7.539977327 2.015991
1995 8.220002337 2.288001
1996 7.8181908 2.127276
1997 4.699899984 0.87996
1998 -13.12674558 -6.2507
1999 0.791126478 -0.68355
2000 4.92007015 0.968028
2001 3.829007127 0.531603
2002 4.375639213 0.750256
2003 4.875726069 0.95029
2004 4.765051813 0.906021
2005 5.80058069 1.320232
2006 5.510444506 1.204178
2007 6.316345394 1.526538
2008 6.032752058 1.413101
2009 4.5756549 0.830262
2010 6.105314587 1.442126
In Okun's law look what percentage amount of unemployment that can be subtracted from economic growth can be achieved . Still small amount of unemployment can be reduced over the last 20 years , this suggests that 20 years from now , Indonesia is still faced with a very large number of unemployed .
In 2010 the economy prtumbuhan of 6.1053 % , unemployment could be reduced by 1.442 % . unemployment can be reduced is very very small , considering Indonesia is still quite large unemployment . In order to increase the amount of unemployment can be reduced , then the economy must be improved . | MJF
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