Within the framework of the military and politics, Vladimir Putin is in control of the Ukrainian crisis . Russia benefited geographically , in terms of population , and logistics to sustain its aggression to the Crimea region of Ukraine or even the east .
However , if the United States ( U.S. ) , the European Union and Ukraine use advantages in economic and financial affairs - particularly the way weaken Russia's main source of power , namely the export of energy - Putin will get stuck into a number of risks .
Not just this once Putin invaded the territory of the former Soviet Union - under the pretext of protecting ethnic minorities to undermine Russian - governance against his will . When we both worked at the Treasury Department in the summer of 2008 , Russia in trouble with Georgia on the grounds to protect Russian citizens living in South Ossetia , Georgia .
Russia was launched military action to annex territory , but cutting off the main transit Georgia . By inhibiting the activity of trade and strive to accomplish mass unrest from the economic crisis , Putin seeks to create conditions suitable to replace the government that favor the interests of Russia . In an effort to confront Moscow , the best weapon we not drone . But the money ..
Assessment of aggression Putin should not wear glasses obsolete . Of course , one of the goals is to assert the presence of Putin's Russia in eastern Ukraine and Sevastopol , Crimea . However , there are still other purpose .
Through a show of force and intimidation , he tried to get it on but thought that has been achieved in December when Ukraine agreed to buy bonds worth $ 15 billion : the Ukrainian government are subject to Russia .
From 2006 to 2009, Russia cut gas ekskpor as a weapon against the Ukrainian economy . Western European markets and international energy was shaken . In January 2009 , the last time the tap export corked , Russia Ukraine gas supply requirements by 58 % and Europe 40 % .
However , it is now 2014 and the situation has changed . Through persistent and effective diversification , Ukraine managed to reduce gas imports from Russia amounted to more than 10 % while the EU 20 % . Unlike in 2009 , the latest crisis at the end of winter . Ukraine and EU countries reportedly have had to gas reserves through the winter .
Conversely , when the Russian economy is not as strong as the previous position when dealing with Ukraine and Georgia . A month ago , before the crisis , Russia had to withdraw the domestic bond auction two weeks in a row following a poor market conditions . At the beginning of the week , the domestic currency to a record all-time worst decline since the financial markets fretted over the Ukrainian crisis .
More markets react to economic instability Ukraine rather than Russia . Ukraine reserves deficit and threatened with gagar pay or at least the lack of restructuring in the multilateral aid package .
However, these risks may give rise to opportunities . If the U.S. and the European Union to provide economic aid package worth about $ 20 billion , Ukraine 's economy seems to be running stable . States of emergency may be prohibitive . However , a number of vital economic reforms such as reduction in domestic gas subsidies and guarantees over the elections free and fair in May can be achieved .
If the Ukrainian economy get bail , the European Union and Ukraine can make Russian energy exports as a boomerang for Moscow to restrict imports of Russian natural gas through a series of scalable coordination . Coupled with the potential loss of the Russian top Ukrainian banks amounted to $ 30 billion , Russia can suddenly become a target for speculators weak currencies and bonds .
Besides not entitled to military clashed with Russia , the U.S. was not interested to launch an attack . However , it does not mean the U.S. and its allies face a stalemate . If the full potential of existing national security explored , especially with regard to economic and financial affairs , Russia will realize that the crisis is not a suitable analogy Georgia in 2008, but the ruble currency crisis in 1998 - a period that marks the beginning of the destruction of President Boris Yeltsin . Given these examples , Putin will know that keeping his power in the country to avoid a recession is more valuable than creating chaos in neighboring countries . | ASWJ / Robert M. Kimmitt and Stephen A. Myrow / MJF
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